Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
